The general public has made its prediction: Bitcoin's current price of $76,381.68 will exceed $90,000 in the near future, potentially turning its year-to-date return from negative to positive. However, it remains uncertain whether the market will follow this trajectory. Analytics firm Santiment analyzed thousands of social media posts across various platforms, including X, Reddit, and Telegram, and found that the majority of posts over the past week have been bullish, anticipating Bitcoin's price to surpass $90,000.
Mentions of lower price ranges, between $50,000 and $59,000, are being dismissed as fear, uncertainty, and doubt. The crowd is expecting the recent recovery from the February low of around $60,000 to continue into May, fueled by the return of flows into exchange-traded funds and Bitcoin's resilience in the face of global conflicts, oil price surges, and DeFi hacks.
This bullish sentiment is precisely why Santiment advises caution, suggesting that overly optimistic social media predictions can often indicate the opposite outcome. As one poet noted, 'wherever the crowd goes, run in the other direction,' implying that the majority is often incorrect.
This phenomenon is also observed in traditional markets, where contrarian traders use sentiment gauges like the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey and the CNN Fear & Greed Index to inform their decisions. Notably, Bitcoin's recovery rally has already stalled this week, with prices retreating to $77,000 from highs above $79,000 on Monday, leaving it uncertain whether this is a temporary pause or the beginning of a broader reversal.