The bitcoin price, currently at $76,303.87, may be poised for a correction despite its slight uptrend. Having gained less than 0.5% since midnight UTC, any significant push towards $80,000 is likely to encounter resistance.
According to Luke Deans, a senior research associate at Bitwise, short-term holders have a cost basis around $80,000, which could trigger profit-taking and selling, thereby limiting any potential advance. Furthermore, the upcoming US March PCE inflation report, coupled with soaring oil prices and the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the federal funds rate, is exerting downward pressure on the market. The surge in West Texas Intermediate crude to $110 and reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz are also contributing to the fragility of energy markets. Deans notes that altcoins remain closely tied to bitcoin, with a high correlation and beta percentiles of 97% and 99%, respectively, indicating that tokens may mirror the performance of levered bitcoin trades.
He also observes that beneath the surface, conditions are forming that are typically associated with rising volatility, characterized by subdued liquidity and a lack of directional conviction, which may necessitate price movements to unlock new liquidity.