Bitcoin, currently trading at $76,190.58, has fallen by 3% in morning trading in Asia, hovering around $77,000 as the market prepares for a week filled with significant macroeconomic events. The decline appears to be driven more by caution than a change in market sentiment.
According to Enflux, a Singapore-based market maker, traders are hesitant to drive up the price of bitcoin ahead of the upcoming rate decision and a series of data releases, including GDP, PCE inflation, and the Employment Cost Index. These releases will shape expectations for when the Fed can begin cutting rates in the second half of the year.
At present, oil prices are the main constraint, with Brent crude remaining above $100, complicating the inflation outlook and making it more challenging for the Fed to adopt a dovish stance. Enflux notes that the market is operating under two contradictory assumptions: that geopolitical tensions will eventually ease, but any resolution will not arrive quickly enough to influence near-term policy. This has led to a pricing out of rate cuts for June and created a more ambiguous backdrop for risk assets. As a result, bitcoin has struggled to break above key technical levels, trading roughly 4% below its short-term holder cost basis near $80,700.
To move decisively above this level, a clear signal from the Fed that oil-driven inflation will prove temporary would likely be required. Otherwise, Enflux expects bitcoin to trade tentatively into Thursday's data releases, with a sharper move more likely tied to the macro prints than the Fed statement itself. Looking beyond this week, a less visible force may also be shaping bitcoin's next moves. The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI has missed key revenue targets, raising questions about the pace of AI demand.
Listed BTC mining companies have taken on significant debt while selling portions of their treasuries to pivot to hosting AI data centers, a venture believed to be more profitable than mining. A slowdown in this pivot could, in theory, slow selling. When demand for compute is strong, miners have both the incentive and financing to keep building, often leading to continued BTC sales to fund capex and service debt.
However, if OpenAI's miss signals that AI growth may not keep pace with expectations, the dynamic becomes more complex. A slowdown in AI expansion could ease miner-driven selling over time, removing a source of supply. The issue is timing: sell pressure on semiconductor and data stocks due to weaker tech and risk appetite would likely bring down the crypto market, while any relief from slower miner selling would come later. In that sense, the AI story only reinforces Enflux's broader point.
The market is stuck between competing macro forces, and any slowdown in AI demand adds another layer of uncertainty without immediately resolving the ones that matter most for price. For now, that keeps bitcoin trading in the same narrow band, waiting for a clearer signal.