The price of bitcoin has not yet reached its lowest point and is unlikely to achieve a new all-time high this year, according to Michael Terpin, a well-known early investor in bitcoin and author of Bitcoin Supercycle: How the Crypto Calendar Can Make You Rich. Terpin, often referred to as the 'Crypto Godfather', believes that before a bull market can commence, the price of bitcoin must break above $100,000, and he anticipates the bottom to be around $57,000 by October. Despite a double-digit increase in April, Terpin thinks the market is still in a downturn. His bearish outlook contrasts with the views of many analysts who think the low of $60,000 in February marked the end of the bear market and the beginning of a bull run.
Many of these analysts cite the renewed inflows into US-listed spot ETFs and the token's resilience during the Iran conflict and the oil price spike as part of their reasoning. In an interview, Terpin stated that the psychological barrier of $80,000 was strongly rejected during Asian trading hours, which he believes is typical at this stage of the bitcoin cycle. Jason Fernandes, a market analyst, agrees with Terpin that the bottom has not yet been reached but disagrees with the timeline, thinking the market may not have fully capitulated.
Fernandes believes that historically, durable bottoms tend to coincide with a clear exhaustion of speculative leverage and macro uncertainty, and the market is not yet at that point. Terpin insists that the fundamentals point towards a bottom that includes the historical average of the one-year period from each cycle's bottom, indicating around $57,000.
Fernandes adds that broader macro conditions could continue to weigh on risk assets, including bitcoin, and that liquidity conditions remain tight, making downside volatility likely. The author also stated that bitcoin will not achieve an all-time high this year, a view disputed by Mati Greenspan, a crypto market analyst, who thinks the 'Crypto Godfather's' take is overly bearish and that there is still room for growth this year. Fernandes also notes that market sentiment has not yet reached the levels typically associated with cycle bottoms, suggesting that the market may need one more downturn before a sustainable base is formed.