The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a unique phenomenon, with Bitcoin remaining stagnant while other assets experience significant fluctuations. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, Bitcoin hovered just below $77,000, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week. This stability is notable, especially considering Brent crude oil prices surpassed $111 per barrel following a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump instructed his aides to prepare for a prolonged US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. According to Trump, Iran is in a state of collapse, as stated on Truth Social on Tuesday.
However, Tehran has indicated that it may consider an interim agreement to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. Other major cryptocurrencies experienced more significant price movements, with Ether dropping 2.6% to $2,310 over the week, XRP falling 3.8% to $1.39, Solana declining 3.2% to $84.57, and BNB shedding 2.3% to $625.
The exception was Dogecoin, which saw a 5.5% increase to $0.1016 over the week, making it the only top-10 token outside stablecoins to experience gains. As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a trend that often occurs when macroeconomic stress arises and capital flows into the largest asset. Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, noted in a statement that Bitcoin's relative calmness is indicative of a shift in market structure. "The excess supply has been depleted, and sellers who were spooked by macroeconomic shifts or quantum concerns have already exited, leaving the market with fewer sellers than it had just a few months ago," Ebtikar said in an email to CoinDesk.
"Bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policies than people think. Its sensitivity is purely a function of broader market volatility, and since we are currently in a quieter trading range, there is no immediate reason for a mass exodus," Ebtikar added. From a technical perspective, the levels are more defined.
Analysts at Bitget identified $75,000 as the critical line where the upward range that has held since late March would break, potentially leading to further downside if the level is breached. A reversal towards $80,000 from current levels would maintain the rally structure intact and set the stage for a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin's attempts since February.
The Federal Reserve is set to announce its rate decision later on Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank on Thursday. The US equity market experienced a sell-off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the returns on artificial intelligence capital expenditure, with Nasdaq 100 futures recovering 0.4% in Asian hours. Brent crude oil prices fluctuated between gains and losses but remained elevated near $111 due to the blockade reports, putting renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions.
Traders may be watching to see if Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion can withstand the next macroeconomic shock. If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated in March and April is gone, and Bitcoin will trade based on volatility rather than headlines until a new selling wave is triggered.
If the assessment is incorrect, the $75,000 level may be tested quickly, and the range break flagged by Bitget may play out as expected.