The general consensus among retail investors is that Bitcoin's current price of $76,148.42 will soon exceed $90,000, thereby turning the year-to-date return from negative to positive. However, it remains uncertain whether the market will follow this trend.
A recent analysis by Santiment, which scanned thousands of social media posts across various platforms, found a significant skew towards predictions of Bitcoin's price surpassing $90,000 in the near future. Mentions of lower price ranges, between $50,000 and $59,000, are largely being dismissed as fear, uncertainty, and doubt.
The crowd's expectation is that the recovery from the February low of around $60,000 will continue into May, fueled by the return of flows into exchange-traded funds and Bitcoin's resilience in the face of recent geopolitical and economic challenges. According to Santiment, this widespread bullishness is actually a reason to exercise caution, as overly optimistic social sentiment can often precede a bearish market performance. This concept is reminiscent of the words of American poet Charles Bukowski, who advised to move in the opposite direction of the crowd, as they are often incorrect. Contrarian traders use similar sentiment gauges, such as the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey and the CNN Fear & Greed Index, to inform their investment decisions.
Notably, Bitcoin's recovery rally has already stalled this week, with prices retreating to $77,000 from highs above $79,000 on Monday, leaving it uncertain whether this is a temporary pause or the start of a broader reversal.