According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is focused on capturing the upside, rather than just offering cheaper trading. The Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal (HIP)-4 introduces event trading with a zero-fee-to-open model. Hayes believes the real differentiator is Hyperliquid's exchange token, HYPE, which allows users to profit from platform activity. He notes that HIP-4 will quickly become a dominant prediction market due to Hyperliquid's large user base, low trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure.
Users who own the $HYPE token can directly benefit from their usage of HIP-4. In contrast, Polymarket is expected to launch a token, and Kalshi's model is built around compliance and licensing, without token incentives.
The geographical landscape also plays a role, with Polymarket facing regulatory challenges in Asia and Hyperliquid having a user base that skews toward the region. The contrast between Hyperliquid, Polymarket, and Kalshi highlights the different approaches to prediction markets, with Hyperliquid's token-based model potentially offering a unique value proposition.