Bitcoin's apparent momentum towards breaking through the $80,000 barrier has been hindered by renewed macroeconomic uncertainty. A classified briefing by the Pentagon to US lawmakers revealed that clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial oil chokepoint, may take at least six months and will only commence after the US-Iran conflict is resolved.
The briefing also cautioned that gasoline and oil prices might remain elevated until the midterm elections, potentially keeping inflation high and limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates. This could have a negative impact on risk assets, including bitcoin, which is highly sensitive to interest rates and global liquidity conditions.
Rising costs of essential items like fuel and food may also deter investors from allocating capital to speculative assets. These risks are already evident in markets, with WTI crude prices increasing to around $95 from $79 and government bond yields rising across major economies. Despite this, US-listed spot bitcoin ETFs continue to show sustained demand, with funds experiencing their fastest inflows in a month. However, some analysts are advising caution, arguing that the rally lacks broad-based support in the spot market.
The market capitalization of USDT, the largest dollar-pegged stablecoin, has reached a record high of $188.88 billion, while speculation in non-serious tokens is intensifying. The ratio of bitcoin's price to gold has been steadily rising, with the 50-day average potentially moving above the 100-day average, indicating a bullish shift in momentum.