The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a mixed trend, with Bitcoin showing minimal movement while other assets experience fluctuations. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, Bitcoin hovered just below $77,000, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week.
This stability persisted despite Brent crude oil prices exceeding $111 per barrel, driven by a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for a prolonged US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In response to the situation, Iran has described its current state as one of 'collapse,' according to Trump's statement on Truth Social.
Tehran, however, has indicated a willingness to consider an interim agreement to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade on Iranian ports. Other major cryptocurrencies, such as Ether, XRP, Solana, and BNB, have experienced declines, with losses ranging from 2.3% to 3.8% over the week.
In contrast, Dogecoin saw a 5.5% increase, making it the only top-10 token, excluding stablecoins, to exhibit growth over the past seven days. As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a trend often observed during periods of macroeconomic stress when capital flows into the largest asset. Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, attributes Bitcoin's relative calm to a shift in market structure, stating that the supply overhang has been depleted and sellers who were previously spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have exited the market. This has resulted in a thinner sell-side, making Bitcoin less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy.
Instead, its sensitivity is primarily driven by broader volatility, which is currently relatively low. Analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical technical level, below which the upward range that has held since late March could break, potentially leading to further downside.
Conversely, a reversal towards $80,000 would maintain the rally structure intact and set the stage for a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin's attempts since February. The upcoming Fed rate decision, scheduled for later on Wednesday, and the ECB's decision on Thursday, will be closely watched by traders, particularly in light of the US equity market's sell-off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the payoff from artificial intelligence capital expenditure. The price of Brent crude continues to fluctuate, remaining elevated near $111, and placing renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions.
Traders will be monitoring whether Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion can withstand the next macro shock, and if Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated in March and April is gone, and Bitcoin's price will be driven by volatility rather than headlines until a fresh wave of selling is triggered.