Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, believes that Hyperliquid's entry into prediction markets will focus on capturing upside potential rather than just offering cheaper trading. Hyperliquid's zero-fee-to-open model for event trading under HIP-4 is set to introduce event trading on the platform. Hayes argues that the key differentiator is Hyperliquid's exchange token, HYPE, which allows users to profit directly from platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi. With a large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, Hayes predicts that HIP-4 will quickly become a dominant prediction market.
The introduction of HYPE enables users to benefit from their usage of HIP-4, setting it apart from competitors. In comparison, Polymarket is expected to launch its own token, while Kalshi's model is built around compliance and licensing, without token incentives. The contrast between these platforms highlights the potential of Hyperliquid's token-based approach, which may give it an edge in the prediction market space.