The 30-year US Treasury yield has surged to 5%, a level last seen in July 2025, prompting concerns among crypto analysts that rising yields will put pressure on bitcoin. This milestone has been reached only twice in the past two decades, sparking worries that the attractive yields will draw capital away from riskier assets like cryptocurrency. As Diana Pires, chief business officer at sFOX, noted, 'As long as yields remain attractive and monetary policy stays tight, capital has a real alternative to risk, which continues to pressure assets like crypto.' Bitcoin is already feeling the strain, trading at $75,670, down 2% over 24 hours, while the Dollar Index hovers above 99.
The rising yields are also affecting gold, which fell over 1% to a one-month low. Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus exchange, pointed out that 'rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar have historically pressured crypto valuations by tightening financial conditions.' The 10-year yield, a benchmark for borrowing costs, is also elevated, indicating financial tightening and increased borrowing costs. This trend is not limited to the US, as bond yields are rising in the UK and other parts of the world.
The Federal Reserve's decision to leave rates unchanged, coupled with internal dissent from three voting officials, has pushed up expectations for higher-for-longer interest rates. This has led to a surge in bond yields, with the 30-year yield reaching 5%.
The oil price rally, which saw Brent briefly top $125 per barrel, is also lifting inflation expectations, further contributing to the rise in yields. As Matt Mena, senior crypto research strategist at 21shares, observed, 'The Fed's decision to keep rates steady wasn't the shocker, but those three dissenters calling for a strike on any easing guidance threw a bucket of ice on the market's pivot party.' The current market conditions, characterized by rising yields, a strong dollar, and elevated oil prices, are likely to continue posing a challenge for bitcoin and other risk assets.