Roundhill Investments is poised to introduce the first US exchange-traded funds tied to prediction markets, with the launch of six funds that track the potential control of the White House, Senate, and House by Democrats or Republicans. According to a US Securities and Exchange Commission filing, these funds will be listed on May 5, as confirmed by Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart. The funds in question include the Roundhill Democratic President ETF, Republican President ETF, Democratic Senate ETF, Republican Senate ETF, Democratic House ETF, and Republican House ETF.
These products are linked to the outcome of the November 3, 2026, elections for the House and Senate, and the November 7, 2028, presidential election. The funds achieve exposure through swap agreements that reference binary event contracts traded on CFTC-regulated markets, which settle at $1 if the outcome occurs and $0 if it does not. The prospectus warns that if the targeted party does not win, the fund will lose nearly all its value. Rather than terminating the funds after settlement, Roundhill will roll them into the next cycle once the market prices a winner at above $0.995 or below $0.005 for five consecutive trading days.
The prospectus notes that if the market is later proved incorrect, there will be no recourse for shareholders. Competitors Bitwise and GraniteShares have also filed for similar ETFs, with differing structures. While political event contracts are already traded on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, wrapping them in ETFs could expand access by allowing them to be held in ordinary brokerage accounts and some retirement accounts. This development comes after the CFTC withdrew a proposal that would have banned political event contracts, although state regulators in several states continue to challenge these contracts in court.
Roundhill has also filed to list non-political prediction market ETFs tied to the possibility of a US recession.