Bitcoin, currently trading at $76,393.54 with a marginal gain, may experience a setback. Having appreciated by less than 0.5% since midnight UTC, any significant push towards $80,000 is anticipated to encounter resistance. According to Luke Deans, a senior research associate at Bitwise, short-term holders have a cost basis around $80,000, which may prompt them to realize profits and sell, thereby limiting any potential advance.
The release of the US March PCE inflation report, coupled with high oil prices and increased bond yields, is expected to further weigh on risk assets. The recent decision by the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds rate, marked by an unusually high number of dissenting voices, has also contributed to market uncertainty. Deans notes that altcoins remain closely tied to Bitcoin, with a high correlation and beta percentiles of 97% and 99%, respectively, indicating that tokens may exhibit leveraged movements similar to those of Bitcoin.
'The underlying conditions suggest that volatility may be on the rise,' Deans observed, 'with subdued liquidity and a lack of directional conviction, often necessitating price movements to unlock new liquidity.'