The price of bitcoin has not yet reached its lowest point and is unlikely to achieve a new all-time high this year, according to Michael Terpin, a well-known early bitcoin investor and author of the book 'Bitcoin Supercycle: How the Crypto Calendar Can Make You Rich'. Terpin, often referred to as the 'Crypto Godfather', believes that before a bull market can begin, the price of bitcoin needs to surpass $100,000, but currently, there is no support for this. Despite a double-digit increase in April, Terpin claims that the bitcoin market is still experiencing a decline. His bearish outlook differs from the consensus among analysts that the low of $60,000 in February marked the end of the bear market and the start of a new bull run.
Most bullish analysts point to renewed investments in US-listed spot ETFs and the token's resilience during the Iran conflict and oil price spike as reasons for their positive outlook. In an interview, Terpin stated that during Asian trading hours on Monday, the psychological barrier of $80,000 was strongly rejected due to the high oil price.
He explained that this is typical in the current stage of the bitcoin cycle, with lower highs being rejected until the final capitulation. Market analyst Jason Fernandes agrees with Terpin that the bottom has not yet been reached but disagrees with the timeline, suggesting that the market may not have fully capitulated. Terpin insists that the fundamentals point to a bottom that includes the historical average of the one-year period from each cycle's bottom, indicating a price of around $57,000, which he predicts will happen in October. Fernandes notes that broader macro conditions could continue to affect risk assets, including bitcoin, due to tight liquidity conditions and risk assets adjusting to a higher-for-longer rate environment.
Terpin also stated that bitcoin will not achieve an all-time high this year, a view that crypto market analyst Mati Greenspan disagrees with, calling Terpin's take 'overly bearish'. Greenspan believes that given the level of institutional adoption and growing interest, a new all-time high is plausible. Fernandes adds that market sentiment has not yet reached the levels typically associated with cycle bottoms, suggesting that another leg down may be needed before a sustainable base is formed.