The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a period of fluctuation, with Bitcoin remaining stagnant while other major cryptocurrencies and oil prices experience significant changes. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, Bitcoin reached nearly $77,000, representing a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week.
This stability occurred despite Brent crude oil prices surpassing $111 per barrel, following a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump instructed his aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Iran has stated that the country is in a state of collapse, according to Trump's claims on Truth Social. Tehran has signaled potential acceptance of an interim agreement to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports.
Other major cryptocurrencies, such as Ether, XRP, Solana, and BNB, have experienced significant declines, with losses ranging from 2.3% to 3.8% over the week. In contrast, Dogecoin has seen a 5.5% increase, making it the only top-10 token, excluding stablecoins, to exhibit growth over the past seven days. As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is slowly increasing, a common occurrence during periods of macroeconomic stress when capital flows into the largest asset.
According to Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, Bitcoin's relative calmness is indicative of a shift in market structure. Ebtikar noted that the supply overhang has been depleted, and sellers who were previously spooked by macroeconomic shifts or quantum fears have already exited the market, resulting in a much thinner sell-side. He also stated that Bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than commonly perceived, with its sensitivity being primarily driven by broader volatility.
Given the current quieter trading range, there is no immediate pressure to sell. From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level, where the upward range that has held since late March would be broken, potentially leading to further downside. A reversal towards $80,000 would maintain the rally structure and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin's attempts since February. The Fed's rate decision, scheduled for later on Wednesday, and the ECB's decision on Thursday, will be closely watched, along with the US equity market, which sold off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the returns on artificial intelligence capital expenditure.
Nasdaq 100 futures have rebounded 0.4% in Asian hours. Brent crude oil prices have whipsawed between gains and losses but remain elevated near $111, putting renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions. Traders will be watching to see if Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion holds against the next macro shock. If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated in March and April is gone, and Bitcoin will trade based on volatility rather than headlines until a new selling wave is triggered.