Research from blockchain analytics firm Solidus Labs has uncovered that a tiny fraction of traders on Polymarket are reaping the majority of the profits, with less than 1% of wallets accounting for roughly half of all gains in key markets. Between December 2025 and February 2026, the report found that a mere 0.55% of profitable maker wallets captured 50% of gains, while 0.26% of winning taker wallets accounted for nearly the same share, resulting in approximately $8 million of the $16 million in profits.
This discovery reinforces previous academic findings that a small minority of traders drives price discovery on Polymarket, with a London Business School and Yale paper having previously analyzed by CoinDesk revealing that about 3% of traders drive most price movements. The significant disparity between the profits of a small group of traders and the broader base of participants underscores the existence of a structural divide, with the former operating with considerable advantages in terms of capital, infrastructure, and execution strategies. According to the report, the traders capturing a disproportionate share of profits are 'operating in a different league entirely,' with access to resources that are out of reach for most users.
Additionally, the study identified signs of wash trading, with roughly 15% of volume in some markets exhibiting patterns consistent with self-trading or economically neutral positions. Solidus Labs' findings also highlight the potential for incentive farming and manipulation, particularly in light of Polymarket's forthcoming POLY airdrop, which is speculated to factor in trading volume as a metric to allocate tokens. While the data presented is verifiable, it is essential to consider the context, as Solidus Labs sells surveillance platforms and has a vested interest in promoting the need for such infrastructure in prediction markets.