The recent surge in the 30-year US Treasury yield to 5% has sparked concerns among crypto analysts, who see it as a significant headwind for bitcoin. This milestone, achieved earlier today, marks the highest level since July 2025 and has only been reached twice in the past two decades.
The reaction from Holger Zschaeptiz, a prominent macro commentator, sums up the mood of many, who believe that rising yields will divert capital away from risk assets like bitcoin. According to Diana Pires, chief business officer at sFOX, the current dynamic is straightforward: as long as yields remain attractive and the Fed's monetary policy stays tight, capital will favor safe-haven assets over riskier ones like crypto. Bitcoin is already feeling the pressure, trading down 2% over 24 hours, while the Dollar Index hovers above 99. The rise in bond yields typically hurts bitcoin and other risk assets, as it makes bonds a more attractive investment option.
With the 30-year Treasury yielding 5%, investors are more likely to choose the almost risk-free return over the volatile cryptocurrency market. Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus exchange, notes that rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar have historically pressured crypto valuations by tightening financial conditions.
The 10-year yield, a benchmark for borrowing costs, is also elevated, pointing to financial tightening and disincentivizing risk-taking. The recent dissent within the Federal Reserve, with three voting officials pushing back against easing language, has caught markets off guard and pushed up expectations for higher-for-longer interest rates. This development has led to a surge in bond yields, which is expected to continue pressuring bitcoin and other risk assets. The oil price rally, which has lifted inflation expectations, is also contributing to the rise in bond yields.
As a result, the macro backdrop remains a headwind for crypto, with flows favoring yield and safety over volatility.