The value of Bitcoin, currently at $76,109.54, may experience a downturn despite its slight increase. Having gained less than 0.5% since midnight UTC, significant movements towards $80,000 are likely to meet with opposition.
According to Luke Deans, a senior research associate at Bitwise, short-term holders have a cost basis around $80,000, which may prompt them to sell and take profits if the price surpasses this level, thereby limiting any potential gains. Furthermore, the upcoming US March PCE inflation report, combined with high oil prices and rising bond yields, may also hinder the cryptocurrency's progress. The recent Federal Reserve decision to maintain the federal funds rate, accompanied by four dissenting voices, has added to market uncertainty. Deans noted that altcoins remain closely tied to Bitcoin, with a high correlation and beta percentiles of 97% and 99%, respectively, indicating that they may behave like leveraged Bitcoin trades.
He also stated that beneath the surface, conditions are forming that typically precede increased volatility, characterized by subdued liquidity and a lack of directional conviction, which may necessitate price movements to unlock new liquidity.