The alleged insider bet of $400,000 by a Green Beret on a raid in Venezuela may not be an isolated incident, as new research by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective suggests a broader issue with military insider trading on Polymarket. The study analyzed over 435,000 markets and $54.4 billion in cumulative volume from January 2021 to mid-March 2026 and found that low-probability bets on military and defense outcomes have success rates that are difficult to explain through skill or luck, with some cases reaching over 50%. This is in contrast to the typical 14% success rate for such bets across political markets.
The research indicates that markets tied to specific government policies, such as military and defense, are more susceptible to information asymmetries, including insider trading or specialized knowledge. This creates conditions where a small group can consistently outperform others by having access to confidential information.
The findings add to a growing body of research pointing to concentrated profits on Polymarket, with roughly 3% of traders driving price discovery and fewer than 1% of wallets capturing about half of all gains. The report examines the June 2025 U.S. strikes on Iran as a case study, where 19 longshot bets totaling $164,292 were placed in the hours leading up to the strike, resulting in $1.8 million in profits for eight wallets. The pattern of winning longshot bets extends beyond this single event, with the report finding that in five of the six two-hour windows before market resolution, winning longshot bets outnumbered losing ones in Polymarket's military and defense category.
The consistency of these patterns suggests that some participants may have information advantages that others do not have. The report recommends identity verification for bettors, conditional payouts on suspicious wagers, restrictions on markets whose outcomes are decided by small groups, and limits on how granular contracts can become. It also calls for an evidence-informed debate about whether the public should be betting on these outcomes at all.