A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's initial public offering anticipated to take place in June, potentially drawing interest away from crypto assets. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. This would surpass the record set by Saudi Aramco's $29 billion IPO in 2019. OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with valuations nearing $1 trillion and $60 billion, respectively.
The combined capital raised by these companies could exceed $240 billion, a figure that surpasses the total venture-backed US IPOs since 2000. This massive influx of capital may lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially affecting the crypto market. Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies have been trading in tandem with the Nasdaq and S&P 500, and a decrease in speculative capital in equities could lead to a decrease in crypto prices. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, raises concerns that institutional milestones may signal a top rather than a starting point for crypto assets.
The 30% retail allocation in SpaceX's IPO, worth roughly $22 billion, may also divert funds away from crypto investments. Furthermore, SpaceX's disclosed bitcoin position of 8,285 BTC, worth around $600 million, makes its IPO the first public-market debut of a company with a material bitcoin holding.
The impact of this event on the crypto market will be closely watched, particularly during the roadshow window in May and June.