The US-driven rally in April is losing steam. The Coinbase Premium, which measures the difference between the price of Bitcoin on Coinbase and offshore exchanges, has flipped negative for the first time since early April, according to CryptoQuant data.
This metric had been consistently positive from April 8 to April 22, during which time Bitcoin rose from $66,000 to a local high of nearly $78,000. The premium peaked around April 22 and has been declining since. As Coinbase is often used as a proxy for US institutional and dollar-denominated flows, a persistent negative reading suggests that American investors are paying less than the rest of the world, indicating they are either selling more aggressively or not participating as much. On-chain data supports this narrative, with the 7-day sum of Bitcoin Realized Loss spiking to $5.97 billion on April 24 as Bitcoin traded near $78,000.
This realized loss occurs when holders sell coins below their original purchase price. The significant spike near $6 billion at $78,000 implies that sellers were buyers at higher prices, likely between $80,000 and $95,000 in late 2025 and early 2026, using the April bounce as an exit opportunity rather than reentering the market.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that this cohort is likely exiting rather than reentering. The combination of these datasets suggests that US institutional buyers are slowing their demand through Coinbase, coinciding with increased selling activity by holders.
With Bitcoin recently trading around $76,000, traders are watching to see if the Realized Loss metric continues to decline as the underwater supply diminishes. The reading has already dropped from its April 24 peak to $4.7 billion by April 28, indicating the seller cohort is decreasing.