Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, believes that Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets will be determined by who can capture the upside, rather than just offering cheaper trading. According to Hayes, the real differentiator is Hyperliquid's exchange token, HYPE, which enables users to profit from platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi. Hayes noted that HIP-4 will rapidly become a dominant prediction market due to Hyperliquid's large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, with HYPE token holders able to directly profit from their usage of HIP-4. In contrast, Polymarket is expected to launch its own token, while Kalshi's model, as a CFTC-regulated exchange, is built around compliance and licensing, without token incentives.
The geographical landscape also plays a role, with Polymarket facing regulatory challenges in Asia and Hyperliquid having an edge due to its user base skewed towards the region.