The alleged $400,000 insider bet by a Green Beret on a Venezuela raid initially seemed like an isolated incident. However, a new report by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) suggests it may be just the tip of the iceberg. The nonprofit research group analyzed over 435,000 settled Polymarket contracts from January 2021 to mid-March 2026, totaling $54.4 billion in cumulative volume. They discovered that low-probability bets on military and defense outcomes have success rates that defy explanation by skill or luck alone.
Typically, such 'longshot' bets succeed around 14% of the time across political markets. In contrast, military-linked contracts have seen success rates exceed 50% in some cases. The authors noted that markets tied to specific government policies, such as military and defense and foreign affairs, are particularly challenging to forecast using public information, making them more vulnerable to information asymmetries, including insider trading or specialized knowledge. This creates an environment where a small group of traders can consistently outperform others, not just by reacting faster, but by possessing more knowledge.
Polymarket emphasizes its market surveillance teams and cooperation with the Department of Justice on the Venezuela case, stressing that trading on confidential knowledge is prohibited on the platform. The ACDC report's findings add to a growing body of research pointing in the same direction.
A working paper from London Business School and Yale found that roughly 3% of traders account for most price discovery on Polymarket. Separate analysis from blockchain analytics firm Solidus Labs showed that profits are even more concentrated, with fewer than 1% of wallets capturing about half of all gains. The report examines the June 2025 U.S. strikes on Iran as a case study, where 19 longshot bets totaling $164,292 were placed across contracts that ultimately resolved YES, with eight wallets sharing about $1.8 million in profits.
Despite the Pentagon's efforts to keep the operation secret, a small number of traders placed large, well-timed bets on the outcome. The pattern extends beyond this single event, with winning longshot bets outnumbering losing ones in five of the six two-hour windows before market resolution, contrary to what market prices imply.
While longshot bets can outperform due to mispricing or shifts in public expectations, the consistency of the patterns, especially in markets tied to military decisions, suggests that some participants may be operating with information advantages that others do not have. The ACDC's recommendations include implementing identity verification for bettors, conditional payouts on suspicious wagers, restrictions on markets whose outcomes are decided by small groups, and limits on contract granularity.
The report concludes by calling for an evidence-informed debate about whether the public should be betting on these outcomes at all.