The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a unique scenario where Bitcoin is stagnant despite significant movements in other assets. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, Bitcoin hovered just below $77,000, marking a mere 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decline over the week.
This stability persisted even as Brent crude oil prices exceeded $111 per barrel, driven by a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for a prolonged US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In response to the situation, Iran has described its current state as one of "collapse," according to Trump's statement on Truth Social.
Meanwhile, Tehran has indicated its willingness to consider an interim agreement to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. Among other major cryptocurrencies, Ether saw a 2.6% weekly decline to $2,310, XRP fell 3.8% to $1.39, Solana dropped 3.2% to $84.57, and BNB lost 2.3% to $625. The only exception was Dogecoin, which experienced a 5.5% weekly increase to $0.1016, making it the sole top-10 token outside stablecoins to exhibit growth over the seven-day period.
As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a trend that often occurs when macroeconomic stress leads to capital flowing into the largest asset. Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, observed that Bitcoin's relative calmness may signal a shift in market structure. "The supply overhang has been depleted, and sellers who were spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited, leaving the market much thinner on the sell-side than it was just a few months ago," Ebtikar noted in an email to CoinDesk.
He further added, "Bitcoin is far less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than people think. Its sensitivity is purely a function of wider volatility, and since we're currently in a quieter trading range, there's no immediate rush for the exits." From a technical standpoint, analysts at Bitget identified $75,000 as the critical level where the upward range that has held since late March could break, potentially leading to further downside. A reversal back toward $80,000 from current levels would maintain the rally structure intact and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin's attempts since February. The Federal Reserve is set to announce its rate decision later on Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank's decision on Thursday.
The US equity market experienced a sell-off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the payoff from artificial intelligence capital expenditure, although Nasdaq 100 futures recovered 0.4% in Asian hours. Brent crude prices continued to fluctuate but remained elevated near $111, driven by the blockade reports, which may put renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions. Traders will be watching to see if Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion can withstand the next macro shock.
If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated through March and April is gone, and Bitcoin will trade based on volatility rather than headlines until something triggers a fresh wave of selling. If the assessment is incorrect, $75,000 may be tested quickly, and the range break flagged by Bitget could play out as anticipated.