The majority of retail investors are predicting that Bitcoin's price will exceed $90,000 in the near future, which would turn the year-to-date return positive. However, it is uncertain whether the market will follow this trend. Analytics firm Santiment analyzed thousands of social media posts and found that the majority of discussions are focused on Bitcoin's price surpassing $90,000, with mentions of lower price ranges being dismissed as fear, uncertainty, and doubt. The crowd is expecting the recovery from the February low of around $60,000 to continue into May, driven by factors such as the resurgence of exchange-traded funds and Bitcoin's resilience in the face of recent geopolitical and market challenges.
Nevertheless, Santiment warns that this widespread bullishness could be a reason to exercise caution, as overly optimistic social sentiment can often precede a bearish market performance. This phenomenon is reminiscent of the wisdom of American poet Charles Bukowski, who advised running in the opposite direction of the crowd. Similarly, contrarian traders in traditional markets use sentiment gauges, such as the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey and the CNN Fear & Greed Index, to inform their investment decisions. Notably, Bitcoin's recovery rally has already experienced a setback this week, with prices retreating to $77,000 from highs above $79,000 on Monday, leaving it unclear whether this is a temporary pause or the beginning of a broader reversal.