The US-driven momentum that fueled April's rally is losing steam. The Coinbase Premium, which measures the difference between the price of Bitcoin on Coinbase and offshore exchanges, has turned negative for the first time since early April, according to CryptoQuant data. This metric had consistently been positive from April 8 to April 22, during which time Bitcoin's price rose from $66,000 to a local high of nearly $78,000. The premium peaked around April 22 and has since declined.
As Coinbase is often used as a proxy for US institutional and dollar-denominated flows, a persistent negative reading suggests that American investors are now paying less than the rest of the world, indicating either more aggressive selling or a lack of buying interest. On-chain data paints a similar picture, with the 7-day sum of Bitcoin Realized Loss surging to $5.97 billion on April 24 as Bitcoin traded near $78,000. This realized loss is only recognized when coins are sold below their original purchase price. The spike near $6 billion at $78,000 implies that sellers were buyers at higher prices, likely between $80,000 and $95,000 during late 2025 and early 2026.
They seem to be using the April bounce as an exit opportunity rather than a reentry point. The combination of these datasets suggests that US institutional buyers are slowing their purchases through Coinbase, while holders are increasing their selling activity.
Bitcoin was recently trading around $76,000. Going forward, traders will be watching to see if the Realized Loss metric continues to decline as the supply of underwater coins is worked through. The reading has already dropped from its April 24 peak to $4.7 billion by April 28, indicating that the seller cohort may be dwindling.