According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is focused on capturing the upside, rather than just offering cheaper trading. Hyperliquid's HIP-4 proposal introduces event trading with a zero-fee-to-open model. Hayes argues that the key differentiator is Hyperliquid's exchange token, HYPE, which allows users to profit from platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi.
Hayes believes that HIP-4 will become a dominant prediction market due to Hyperliquid's large user base, low trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, and that users who own HYPE tokens can directly benefit from their usage of HIP-4. In contrast, Polymarket is expected to launch its own token, and Kalshi's model is built around compliance and licensing, rather than token incentives. The geographic distribution of users also plays a role, with Hyperliquid facing no constraints and having a user base that skews towards Asia, while Polymarket and Kalshi face regulatory hurdles in various regions.