A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) expected in June, which may impact the crypto market due to shared liquidity. SpaceX's planned $75 billion capital raise at a valuation of $1.75 trillion could make it the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019.
This massive capital pull, combined with the upcoming listings of OpenAI and Anthropic, may lead to a significant shift in market dynamics. The cumulative effect of these IPOs could exceed $240 billion, surpassing the total value of all venture-backed US IPOs since 2000, according to PitchBook estimates.
As a result, crypto assets, which trade in the same risk-on liquidity pool as tech and AI equities, may experience a decline in value. The correlation between bitcoin, ether, and other major cryptocurrencies with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 has tightened over the past two cycles, suggesting that speculative capital leaving equities for IPO allocations could negatively impact crypto prices. Historical parallels, such as Coinbase's listing in April 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, raise concerns that institutional milestones may signal market tops rather than starting lines.
SpaceX's IPO, with its significant retail allocation and material bitcoin position, may further influence crypto flows. The 30% retail allocation, roughly $22 billion, may divert funds away from crypto assets, while SpaceX's 8,285 BTC holding, worth approximately $600 million, makes it the first public-market debut of a company with a substantial bitcoin position disclosed under new fair-value accounting rules.
The upcoming roadshow window in May and June will be a key test for crypto markets, as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription. A bitcoin rally extending through this period could indicate that crypto has decoupled from broader risk-on flows, while a decline may signal that the market has not learned from past experiences.