The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a mix of trends, with Bitcoin showing minimal movement. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, Bitcoin hovered just below $77,000, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week. This stability is notable, given that Brent crude oil has surpassed $111 per barrel following reports that President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran has described its current situation as a 'State of Collapse,' according to Trump's statement on Truth Social. Meanwhile, Tehran has hinted at the possibility of accepting an interim agreement to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. Other major cryptocurrencies have experienced declines, with Ether dropping 2.6% to $2,310, XRP falling 3.8% to $1.39, Solana losing 3.2% to $84.57, and BNB shedding 2.3% to $625.
In contrast, dogecoin saw a 5.5% increase to $0.1016, making it the only top-10 token outside stablecoins to show gains over the past week. As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a common occurrence when macroeconomic stress leads to capital rotation into the largest asset.
According to Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, Bitcoin's relative calmness is indicative of a shift in market structure. 'The oversupply has been absorbed, and sellers who were spooked by macro shifts or quantum concerns have already exited, leaving the market much thinner on the sell-side than it was a few months ago,' Ebtikar stated. 'Bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than people think; its sensitivity is purely a function of wider volatility, and since we're currently in a quieter trading range, there's no immediate rush for the exits.' From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level, where the upward range that has held since late March could break, potentially leading to further downside.
A reversal toward $80,000 from current levels would maintain the rally structure intact and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin's attempts since February. The Federal Reserve is set to announce its rate decision later on Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank on Thursday. The US equity market experienced a sell-off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the payoff from artificial intelligence capital expenditure, although Nasdaq 100 futures have rebounded 0.4% in Asian hours. Brent crude oil continues to fluctuate between gains and losses but remains elevated near $111, putting renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions.
Traders will be watching whether Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion holds against the next macro shock. If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated through March and April is gone, and Bitcoin will trade based on volatility rather than headlines until something triggers a fresh wave of selling.
If the assessment is incorrect, $75,000 will be tested quickly, and the range break flagged by Bitget will play out as expected.