According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is not just about offering cheaper trading, but also about capturing the upside. The Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal (HIP)-4, which introduces event trading on the platform, is expected to be a game-changer.
Hayes believes that the true differentiator is Hyperliquid's exchange token, HYPE, which allows users to profit directly from their platform activity, a feature that Polymarket and Kalshi do not currently offer. With its large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, Hyperliquid is poised to become a dominant prediction market player. The fact that users can own the HYPE token and directly benefit from their usage of HIP-4 gives Hyperliquid a significant edge over its competitors. In comparison, Polymarket is expected to launch its own token, and premarket perpetual contracts tied to the potential token are trading at around $14, implying a fully-diluted valuation of roughly $14 billion.
Meanwhile, HYPE has a fully-diluted valuation of about $38 billion, according to CoinGecko data. The geographical landscape also plays a role, with Polymarket facing regulatory challenges in Asia and Hyperliquid having a strong user base in the region. The contrast is particularly notable with Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange that is built around compliance and licensing, rather than token incentives, which limits its ability to offer users a path to the upside of the platform itself.