The resurgence of the Iran war premium has led to a decline in the cryptocurrency market. Over the past 24 hours, bitcoin has fallen by 2.1% to $75,633, while ether has dropped by 3.4% to $2,244.
This decline is attributed to the surge in Brent crude oil prices, which have reached a four-year high of $126.41 per barrel. The rise in oil prices is a result of reports that President Trump is being briefed on new military options against Iran.
The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut down since the war began, leading to a significant increase in oil prices. As a result, the global benchmark for oil has been on a nine-day winning streak, with prices increasing by over 100% year-to-date. Other cryptocurrencies, such as XRP and Solana, have also experienced declines, while dogecoin has seen a 3.8% increase. The surge in oil prices has led to a decline in risk assets, with the Nasdaq 100 futures and European equities experiencing losses.
The dollar has gained, while bonds have slid, as the increase in oil prices and a hawkish Fed have reduced demand for fixed income. Bitcoin's resilience is being tested, as it has held a tight band between $74,000 and $78,000 despite the rise in oil prices.
However, the cumulative damage is starting to show, with bitcoin now $50,000 below its October 2025 all-time high. According to Fernando Lillo, director at exchange Zoomex, any break above $80,000 will require the war premium to unwind. Lillo believes that a resolution to the Middle East conflict and a drop in Brent crude oil prices below $100 per barrel are necessary for bitcoin to break the key $80,000 level.