Bitcoin, currently valued at $76,070.83, is poised for a potential downturn despite its slight uptrend. The cryptocurrency has experienced minimal growth of less than 0.5% since midnight UTC, and any significant push towards $80,000 is likely to encounter substantial opposition.
According to Luke Deans, a senior research associate at Bitwise, short-term holders have a cost basis around $80,000, which may prompt them to realize their profits and sell, thereby limiting any potential advance. Furthermore, the forthcoming U.S. March PCE inflation report, coupled with the surge in oil prices, is expected to exert additional pressure on risk assets. The recent decision by the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds rate has also introduced uncertainty into the market, with a notable number of dissenting voices.
Deans noted that altcoins continue to closely follow Bitcoin's trend, with a high correlation and beta percentile of approximately 97% and 99%, respectively. This suggests that tokens may exhibit amplified movements similar to those of Bitcoin. Deans cautioned that beneath the surface, conditions are ripe for increased volatility, characterized by subdued liquidity and a lack of directional conviction, which may necessitate significant price movements to unlock new liquidity.