A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) expected to take place in June, drawing interest from the same liquidity pool as crypto. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019.
Meanwhile, OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with valuations nearing $1 trillion and $60 billion, respectively. The combined capital raised by these companies could exceed $240 billion, a figure that surpasses every venture-backed US IPO since 2000, according to PitchBook. This massive influx of capital may lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially impacting the crypto market.
As crypto sits in the same risk-on liquidity pool as tech and AI equities, a decrease in speculative capital in equities could lead to a decrease in crypto values. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern. Institutional milestones often mark tops rather than starting lines, as the capital that chases these milestones is the same capital that was previously holding up the asset.
With a 30% retail allocation in the SpaceX IPO, roughly $22 billion, and the company holding 8,285 BTC worth approximately $600 million, the connection to crypto flows is evident. The upcoming roadshow window in May and June will be a testable signal to see if crypto holds up or begins to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.