Bitcoin, currently at $76,024.26, has dropped 3% in morning Asian trading, hovering near $77,000 as markets prepare for a week filled with significant macroeconomic events. This move seems driven by caution rather than a change in market sentiment.
According to a note from Enflux, a Singapore-based market maker, traders are hesitant to push bitcoin prices higher ahead of the upcoming rate decision and a series of data releases, including GDP, PCE inflation, and the Employment Cost Index. These releases will shape expectations for when the Fed might start cutting rates in the second half of the year. The primary constraint at the moment is oil, with Brent crude remaining above $100. This complicates the inflation outlook and raises the bar for a dovish signal from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Enflux notes that the market operates under two competing assumptions: that geopolitical tensions will eventually ease, but any resolution will not come quickly enough to influence near-term policy. This combination has effectively priced out rate cuts for June, with Polymarket bettors giving a 95% chance of 'no change', creating a more ambiguous backdrop for risk assets. In this environment, bitcoin has struggled to break above key technical levels, trading roughly 4% below its short-term holder cost basis near $80,700.
This level is often seen as a proxy for marginal buyer conviction. A decisive move above this level would likely require a clear signal from the Fed that oil-driven inflation is temporary. Without such a signal, Enflux expects bitcoin to trade cautiously into Thursday's data releases, with sharper moves more likely tied to macroeconomic prints than the Fed statement itself.
Beyond this week, a less visible factor may also shape bitcoin's next moves. The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI has missed key revenue targets, raising questions about the pace of AI demand. Listed BTC mining companies have taken on significant debt and sold portions of their treasuries to pivot to hosting AI data centers, a venture believed to be more profitable than mining.
A slowdown in this pivot could potentially slow selling. When demand for compute is strong, miners have the incentive and financing to keep building, often leading to continued BTC sales to fund capital expenditures and service debt. However, if OpenAI's miss signals that AI growth may not keep pace with expectations, the dynamic becomes more complex. A slowdown in AI expansion could ease miner-driven selling over time, removing a source of supply.
The issue is timing: sell pressure on semiconductor and data stocks, due to weaker tech and risk appetite, would likely bring down the crypto market, while any relief from slower miner selling would come later. In this sense, the AI story reinforces Enflux's broader point. The market is stuck between competing macro forces, and any slowdown in AI demand adds another layer of uncertainty without immediately resolving the ones that matter most for price. For now, this keeps bitcoin trading in the same narrow band, waiting for a clearer signal.