The price of bitcoin has not yet hit its lowest point and is unlikely to reach a new all-time high this year, according to Michael Terpin, a prominent early investor in the cryptocurrency and author of Bitcoin Supercycle. Terpin believes that before a bull market can commence, the price of bitcoin must exceed $100,000, but he thinks the bottom will be reached at $57,000 by October. This prediction is at odds with the views of many analysts who think the bear market ended in February when the price was around $60,000.
Terpin's bearish outlook is based on his analysis of the bitcoin cycle, where he expects to see lower highs being rejected until the final capitulation. However, not all analysts agree with his timeline, with some arguing that the market may not have fully capitulated yet. Jason Fernandes, a market analyst, agrees that the bottom has not been reached but disagrees with the timeline, stating that historically, durable bottoms tend to coincide with a clear exhaustion of speculative leverage and macro uncertainty, which has not yet occurred.
Terpin insists that the fundamentals point to a bottom around $57,000, which he predicts will happen in October, similar to the timeline last year when bitcoin first dipped below $100,000. Fernandes notes that broader macro conditions could continue to weigh on risk assets, including bitcoin, due to tight liquidity conditions and a higher-for-longer rate environment. The 'Crypto Godfather' also predicts that bitcoin will not see an all-time high this year, a view not shared by all, with some analysts arguing that there is still room for growth given the level of institutional adoption and growing interest.