The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a mix of trends, with Bitcoin showing minimal movement despite significant changes in the global economy. As of Wednesday in Asian trading hours, Bitcoin was valued at nearly $77,000, representing a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week.
This stability is notable, especially considering the surge in Brent crude oil prices to over $111 per barrel, triggered by reports that President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In response to the escalating tensions, Iran has expressed its willingness to consider an interim agreement to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade on Iranian ports. Other major cryptocurrencies, such as Ether, XRP, Solana, and BNB, have experienced significant losses, with declines ranging from 2.3% to 3.8% over the week. In contrast, Dogecoin saw a 5.5% increase, making it the only top-10 token outside of stablecoins to show gains over the past week.
As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is slowly increasing, a trend often observed during periods of macroeconomic stress when investors shift their capital to the largest asset. According to Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, Bitcoin's relative calmness is indicative of a shift in market structure, with the supply overhang having dried up and sellers who were previously spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears having already exited the market.
Ebtikar notes that Bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than widely perceived, and its sensitivity is primarily driven by broader market volatility. With the current trading range being relatively quiet, there is no immediate pressure for investors to exit the market. From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level, below which the upward range that has held since late March could break, potentially leading to further downside. On the other hand, a reversal towards $80,000 would maintain the rally structure and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin's attempts to advance since February.
As the Fed announces its rate decision and the ECB follows suit, the US equity market is experiencing growing skepticism about the benefits of artificial intelligence capital expenditure, with Nasdaq 100 futures showing a 0.4% increase in Asian hours. The price of Brent crude continues to fluctuate, staying near $111 due to the blockade reports, which may put renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions. Traders will be watching to see if Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion can withstand the next macro shock, and if Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated in March and April is gone, and Bitcoin's price will be driven by volatility rather than headlines until a new selling pressure emerges.