According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is not just about offering cheaper trading, but about capturing the upside. Hyperliquid's zero-fee-to-open model for event trading under HIP-4 is expected to disrupt the market. Hayes notes that the real differentiator is the HYPE token, which enables users to benefit from platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi. With a large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, Hyperliquid is poised to dominate the prediction market.
The HYPE token has a fully-diluted valuation of around $38 billion, compared to Polymarket's potential $POLY token, which has an implied valuation of roughly $14 billion. Hayes' argument also highlights the geographical advantages of Hyperliquid, with its user base skewed towards Asia, where crypto-native trading is prevalent. In contrast, Polymarket and Kalshi face regulatory constraints, with Polymarket rebuilding its US business and Kalshi's model built around compliance and licensing, rather than token incentives. This structural split may give Hyperliquid a significant edge in the prediction market space.