A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's planned $75 billion IPO set to draw interest from the same liquidity pool as crypto assets. SpaceX filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC earlier this month, aiming for a $1.75 trillion valuation. If successful, this would surpass the $29 billion record set by Saudi Aramco in 2019, making it the largest stock market debut in history. OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning listings, with the combined total potentially exceeding $240 billion from June through year-end, a figure that surpasses all venture-backed US IPOs since 2000.
This massive capital pull may impact crypto assets, as they share the same risk-on liquidity pool as tech and AI equities. The correlation between bitcoin, ether, and major equities has tightened over the past two cycles, and when speculative capital leaves equities for IPO allocations, it may also reduce demand for crypto assets. Historical parallels, such as Coinbase's listing in 2021, suggest that institutional milestones can mark the top of a cycle rather than the beginning.
The 30% retail allocation for SpaceX's IPO, approximately $22 billion, may also divert funds away from crypto assets. Furthermore, SpaceX's disclosed bitcoin position of 8,285 BTC, worth around $600 million, adds another layer of connection between the IPO and crypto flows.
The upcoming roadshow window in May and June will be a testable signal for whether crypto can hold up against the impending IPO or if it will begin to drift lower as allocators prepare for the SpaceX subscription.