The price of bitcoin has not yet reached its lowest point and is unlikely to achieve a new all-time high this year, according to Michael Terpin, an early investor in bitcoin and author of the book Bitcoin Supercycle. Terpin, often referred to as the 'Crypto Godfather' due to his early involvement in the industry, believes that before a bull market can commence, the price of bitcoin must break above $100,000, which he thinks will not happen until the price first drops to $57,000, potentially in October. Despite a significant gain in April, Terpin asserts that the bitcoin market remains in a downturn. His views are in contrast to the opinions of many analysts who believe that the low of $60,000 in February marked the end of the bear market and the beginning of a new bull run, citing factors such as increased investment in U.S.-listed spot ETFs and the resilience of bitcoin during the Iran conflict and the oil price surge.
In an interview, Terpin noted that the rejection of the $80,000 price level during Asian trading hours on Monday, influenced by high oil prices, is typical of the current stage of the bitcoin cycle, where lower highs are rejected until the final capitulation. Market analyst Jason Fernandes agrees with Terpin that the bottom has not yet been reached but disagrees with the timeline, suggesting that the market may not have fully capitulated. Fernandes believes that historically, durable bottoms coincide with the exhaustion of speculative leverage and macro uncertainty, conditions that have not yet been met.
Terpin argues that the fundamentals suggest a bottom that includes the historical average of the one-year period from each cycle's bottom, indicating a price of around $57,000, which he predicts will occur in October. Fernandes also points out that broader macro conditions, including tight liquidity and a higher-for-longer rate environment, could continue to negatively impact risk assets, including bitcoin.
The 'Crypto Godfather' also stated that bitcoin will not achieve a new all-time high this year, a prediction disputed by crypto market analyst Mati Greenspan, who thinks that given the level of institutional adoption and growing interest, an all-time high is plausible. Fernandes notes that market sentiment has not yet reached the extreme pessimism typically associated with cycle bottoms, suggesting that another leg down may be needed before a sustainable base is formed. He views the $100,000 level as more of a psychological signal than a strict technical threshold, adding that a true bull market is defined by structural higher highs and strong capital inflows.