According to retail investors, bitcoin's current price of $76,119.08 is poised to exceed $90,000 in the near future, potentially turning its year-to-date return from negative to positive. However, it remains uncertain whether the market will follow this prediction.
Analytics firm Santiment analyzed thousands of social media posts across various platforms, including X, Reddit, and Telegram, and found that the majority of posts over the past week have been bullish, with many expecting the price to surpass $90,000. Mentions of a price range between $50,000 and $59,000 are being dismissed as fear, uncertainty, and doubt.
The crowd's expectations are likely influenced by the recent inflows into exchange-traded funds and bitcoin's resilience in the face of global conflicts, oil price surges, and DeFi hacks. However, Santiment warns that this widespread bullishness could be a reason to exercise caution, as overly optimistic social sentiment can often precede a bearish market performance. This is in line with the views of contrarian traders, who use sentiment gauges such as the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey and the CNN Fear & Greed Index to inform their decisions. Interestingly, bitcoin's recovery rally has already stalled, with prices pulling back to $77,000 from highs above $79,000 on Monday, leaving it unclear whether this is a temporary pause or the start of a broader reversal.