Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, believes that Hyperliquid's entry into prediction markets is not just about offering cheaper trading, but also about capturing the upside. Hyperliquid is set to introduce event trading under HIP-4, a zero-fee-to-open model. Hayes argues that the real differentiator is HYPE, Hyperliquid's exchange token, which allows users to profit from platform activity. Hayes predicts that HIP-4 will become a dominant prediction market due to Hyperliquid's large user base, low trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure.
In contrast, Polymarket and Kalshi do not offer similar benefits to their users. While Polymarket is expected to launch its own token, HYPE has a significantly higher fully-diluted valuation.
The geographic landscape also favors Hyperliquid, with a strong user base in Asia and no regulatory constraints. In contrast, Polymarket faces regulatory challenges in Asia, and Kalshi's compliance-focused model rules out token incentives.
The contrast between the three platforms highlights the structural differences in their approaches to prediction markets.