The resurgence of the Iran war premium has led to a decline in the cryptocurrency market. Over the past 24 hours, bitcoin has decreased by 2.1% to $75,633, while ether has fallen by 3.4%.
This downturn is attributed to the surge in Brent crude oil prices, which have risen by 7.1% to $126.41 per barrel, a four-year high, following reports of President Trump being briefed on military options against Iran. The potential deployment of hypersonic missiles to the Middle East has contributed to the escalation of the war premium, leading to a rise in oil prices and a subsequent decline in cryptocurrency values. As a result, bitcoin, ether, XRP, and Solana have all experienced significant losses, while dogecoin has seen a gain of 3.8% over the past 24 hours. The current market trends suggest that risk assets are declining across the board, with the Nasdaq 100 futures and European equities also experiencing losses.
The surge in oil prices and a hawkish Fed have led to a decrease in demand for fixed income, resulting in a rise in Treasury 10-year yields. Bitcoin's ability to withstand the early stages of the war is being tested, with the asset currently trading below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000. According to Fernando Lillo, director at exchange Zoomex, a break above $80,000 would require the war premium to unwind and a resolution to the Middle East conflict.
Lillo suggests that a potential lifting of restrictions in the region and lower oil prices could trigger a relief rally, paving the way for Bitcoin to consolidate above $80,000 and move toward $85,000.