A historic stock market debut is imminent, and it may have a significant impact on the crypto market. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. This IPO, expected to take place in June, will be one of the largest in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. The listing is likely to draw significant interest, potentially pulling liquidity away from the crypto market.
SpaceX is not alone, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, targeting valuations near $1 trillion and $60 billion, respectively. If all three companies reach the public market on schedule, they will pull in over $240 billion from June to the end of the year, exceeding the total amount raised by venture-backed US IPOs since 2000. This massive capital pull may trigger a rotation out of equities, including crypto, as investors allocate their funds to these new listings.
The crypto market, which has been closely tied to the tech and AI sectors, may feel the effects of this liquidity drain. Bitcoin, in particular, may be impacted, as it has traded in tandem with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 over the past two cycles. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern.
Institutional milestones often mark tops rather than starting lines, as the capital that chases these milestones is the same capital that was previously holding up the asset. SpaceX's IPO, with its 30% retail allocation and material bitcoin position, will be a testable signal for crypto flows. Whether crypto holds up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to drift lower will be a key indicator of its resilience in the face of this significant liquidity event.