According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is not just about offering cheaper trading, but also about capturing the upside. The Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal (HIP)-4 introduces event trading on the platform with a zero-fee-to-open model. Hayes argues that the real differentiator is Hyperliquid's exchange token, HYPE, which enables users to benefit from platform activity, unlike users of Polymarket and Kalshi.
Hayes stated that HIP-4 will quickly become a dominant prediction market due to Hyperliquid's large user base, low trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, and that users who own the HYPE token can directly profit from their usage of HIP-4. In contrast, Polymarket is expected to launch a token, and Kalshi's model is built around compliance and licensing, not token incentives, which may limit its ability to offer a similar value-accrual layer.