The resurgence of the Iran war premium has taken a toll on the cryptocurrency market. Over the past 24 hours, bitcoin has decreased by 2.1% to $75,633, with a weekly loss of 3%, while Brent crude has surged 7.1% to $126.41 per barrel, its highest intraday level in four years.
This increase in oil prices is attributed to reports that President Donald Trump is being briefed on new military options against Iran. The potential deployment of hypersonic missiles to the Middle East has contributed to the war premium, which refers to the portion of an asset's price driven by conflict risk rather than supply-demand fundamentals. As a result, Brent crude has been carrying a significant war premium all year, with prices rising over 100% year-to-date. The global benchmark is currently on a nine-day winning streak, the longest since May 2022.
Other cryptocurrencies, such as ether, XRP, and Solana, have also experienced declines, with ether dropping 3.4% to $2,244 and XRP falling 2.1% to $1.37. The only notable exception is dogecoin, which has seen a 3.8% increase. The surge in oil prices and a hawkish Fed have led to a decline in risk assets, with the Nasdaq 100 futures erasing earlier gains and European equities expected to drop 1% at the open.
The dollar has gained, and bonds have slid, with Treasury 10-year yields holding near the highest since July. Bitcoin's ability to withstand the early stages of the war is being tested, with the asset holding a tight band between $74,000 and $78,000 through April. However, each escalation headline has produced a sharper drawdown, and the cumulative damage is starting to show.
Bitcoin is now $50,000 below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000. According to Fernando Lillo, director at exchange Zoomex, any break above $80,000 would require the war premium to unwind.
Lillo suggests that a possible scenario where the Trump administration lifts the blockade in coming days and frames it as a response to "positive steps by Iran" could trigger a relief rally, potentially paving the way for Bitcoin to consolidate above $80,000 and move toward $85,000.