The yield on the 30-year US Treasury note has surged to 5%, its highest level since July 2025, prompting concerns among crypto analysts that rising yields could hinder bitcoin's performance. This development, combined with elevated oil prices and rising long-term inflation expectations, is pushing bond yields higher and making them more attractive to investors. As a result, capital may rotate out of non-yielding risk assets like bitcoin, leading to downward pressure on its price. According to experts, the dynamic is straightforward: as long as yields remain attractive and the Fed's monetary policy stays tight, capital will favor safer alternatives, putting pressure on assets like crypto.
The recent surge in oil prices, which reached their highest level since 2022, is also contributing to higher inflation expectations and, in turn, driving yields higher. With the Fed showing no signs of easing its monetary policy, the macro backdrop is expected to remain a headwind for crypto, at least for the time being.