Time is running out for bitcoin to prevent quantum attacks that could put 6.9 million BTC at risk, including Satoshi's holdings
Not all aspects of bitcoin are vulnerable to quantum computers. The process of bitcoin mining, which involves adding new blocks to the blockchain, utilizes a type of mathematics called hashing that quantum computers are unable to compromise. The blockchain itself and the rule that new bitcoins can only be created through mining would survive a quantum attack. However, what would be compromised is ownership. Bitcoin wallets rely on a different type of mathematics that converts a private key into a public address. This mathematics works in one direction but not the other, and it is the only thing preventing unauthorized individuals from spending your coins. A significant portion of bitcoin, approximately 6.9 million, is stored in wallets whose public keys are already visible on the blockchain, making them susceptible to quantum attacks. This includes early bitcoin from the network's first years, stored in an address format that published the public key by default, as well as any wallet that has ever been spent from, because spending reveals the key for whatever remains. The 2021 Taproot upgrade expanded the problem, as any bitcoin spent since Taproot activated has published the key protecting whatever remains at that address. While the quantum threat has sparked a heated debate in recent months, and other blockchains are preparing, nothing concrete has emerged from Bitcoin developers yet. Ethereum, which can be considered one of Bitcoin's largest competitors, has had a formal quantum-resistant program since 2018, with four teams working on the migration full-time and a dedicated website to publish its progress. Bitcoin has no equivalent strategy so far, but there are efforts to solve it, including formal proposals such as BIP-360 and a competing proposal from BitMEX Research. However, neither has broad support from bitcoin's core developers, and the two proposals solve different halves of the problem. The biggest challenge in implementing effective solutions against Bitcoin's quantum threat is the coordination problem, as Bitcoin's migration is harder than Ethereum's due to its lack of a foundation that funds engineering work and a governance process that regularly passes major upgrades. Migrating the 6.9 million exposed coins requires decisions the network has spent twenty years avoiding, and setting a migration deadline forces Satoshi to either move the coins, revealing their ownership, or lose them.