According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of the Maelstrom fund, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is focused on capturing the upside, rather than just providing cheaper trading options. Hyperliquid's zero-fee-to-open model for event trading under HIP-4 is set to be introduced, with Hayes noting that the real differentiator is the HYPE token, which allows users to profit from platform activity. Hayes stated, 'HIP-4 will quickly become a dominant prediction market due to Hyperliquid's large user base, low trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure. Users who own the $HYPE token can directly profit from their usage of HIP-4.' In contrast, Polymarket is expected to launch its own token, $POLY, and Kalshi's model is built around compliance and licensing, without token incentives.
The valuation of HYPE is around $38 billion, compared to the implied valuation of $14 billion for $POLY. The geographical constraints faced by Polymarket, including registration with the CFTC and rebuilding its US business, do not apply to Hyperliquid, which has a user base skewed towards Asia.
The contrast between Hyperliquid and Kalshi is notable, with Kalshi's model likely preventing the kind of value-accrual layer Hayes is pointing to. Overall, the split between the three platforms is structural, with Hyperliquid tying usage to a token, Polymarket potentially moving in that direction, and Kalshi's model likely preventing it altogether.