The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a unique scenario where Bitcoin is holding steady despite significant movements in other assets. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, Bitcoin hovered just below $77,000, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week, maintaining a narrow range.
This stability occurred as Brent crude oil prices surged above $111 per barrel following a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump instructed his aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has expressed that the country is experiencing a state of economic collapse, according to Trump's statement on Truth Social. Tehran, however, has indicated a willingness to consider an interim agreement to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade on Iranian ports. Other major cryptocurrencies experienced declines, with Ether dropping 2.6% to $2,310 over the week, XRP falling 3.8% to $1.39, Solana decreasing 3.2% to $84.57, and BNB shedding 2.3% to $625.
The exception was Dogecoin, which rose 5.5% to $0.1016 over the week, becoming the only top-10 token outside stablecoins to exhibit growth over the seven-day period. As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a trend often observed when macroeconomic stress arises and capital flows into the largest asset. Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, noted that Bitcoin's relative calmness may signify a shift in market structure.
According to Ebtikar, the excess supply has been depleted, and sellers who were previously spooked by macroeconomic shifts or quantum computing concerns have exited the market, resulting in a thinner sell-side. Ebtikar believes that Bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory announcements or central bank policies than commonly perceived, and its sensitivity is primarily driven by broader market volatility. With the current trading range being relatively quiet, there is no immediate pressure to sell. From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level, where a break in the upward range that has held since late March could potentially lead to further downside.
Conversely, a reversal towards $80,000 would maintain the rally structure intact and set the stage for a retest of the resistance level that has rejected Bitcoin's attempts since February. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its rate decision later on Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank on Thursday. The US equity market experienced a sell-off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the returns on artificial intelligence capital expenditures, although Nasdaq 100 futures rebounded 0.4% in Asian hours. Brent crude oil prices continued to fluctuate, remaining elevated near $111 due to the blockade reports, which may put renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions.
Traders will likely monitor whether Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion can withstand the next macroeconomic shock. If Ebtikar's assessment is accurate, the seller base that capitulated during March and April has dissipated, and Bitcoin's price will be driven by volatility rather than headlines until a new selling wave is triggered. Conversely, if the assessment is incorrect, the $75,000 level may be tested rapidly, and the range break flagged by Bitget could play out as anticipated.