According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is not just about cheaper trading, but about capturing the upside. The Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal (HIP)-4 introduces event trading on the platform with a zero-fee-to-open model. Hayes argues that the real differentiator is HYPE, Hyperliquid's exchange token, which allows users to profit from platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi. With a large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, HIP-4 is poised to become a dominant prediction market venue.
Hayes notes that users who own the $HYPE token can directly profit from their usage of HIP-4. In contrast, Polymarket is expected to launch a token, and Kalshi's model is built around compliance and licensing, not token incentives.
The geographical landscape also plays a role, with Hyperliquid facing no equivalent constraints and its user base skewed toward Asia, where crypto-native trading is already deep.